Treated structural grades forecast to outperform other grades: ABARES

Latest forecast produced by ABARES for FWPA suggest that the aggregated Treated Structural grades (combining the <120 mm and >120 mm grades) will grow by 3.0% over the year-ended June 2019, while the other grades subject to assessment will experience declines of 8.1% and 15.6% over the same period. 

The forecasts are based on domestic sawn softwood sales data reported by Australian producers.

Treated Structural 

Actual sales of aggregate treated structural pine in the June 2018 quarter (196,718 m3) were weaker than expected, falling below the April 2018 forecast (202,246 m3) by 2.8 per cent or 5,528 m3. Sales volumes for June 2018 were well within the 95 per cent prediction intervals for all previous forecasts.

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Looking forward, the updated forecasts for the September 2018 quarter onwards have been revised downwards.  Sales are forecast to increase in the September 2018 quarter by 3.4 per cent to 203,358 m3, followed by a decrease in the December 2018 quarter by 3.6 per cent. Sales are then expected to fall slightly in the March 2019 quarter by 0.4 per cent before rising 3.8 per cent in the June 2019 quarter, ending at 202,533 m3 (3.0 per cent higher than current sales).

Structural less than 120mm

Actual sales of structural pine less than 120mm in the June 2018 quarter (185,714 m3) were slightly weaker than expected, falling below the April 2018 forecast (189,347 m3) by 1.9 per cent or 3,633 m3.  The actual sales during June 2018 fell within the 95 per cent prediction interval for all previous forecasts.  

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Looking forward, the forecasts for the September 2018 quarter onwards have been revised downwards, with sales expected to increase by 3.9 per cent to 193,008 m3 in the September 2018 quarter. Sales are expected to fall in the December 2018 quarter by 12.7 per cent and fall again in the March 2019 quarter by a further 4.8 per cent. Sales are forecast to increase in the June 2019 quarter by 6.4 per cent, ending at 170,758 m3 (8.1 per cent lower than current sales).

Structural greater than 120mm

Actual sales of structural pine greater than 120mm in the June 2018 quarter (15,779 m3) were slightly weaker than expected, falling below the April 2018 forecast (16,002 m3) by 1.4 per cent or 222 m3.  The actual sales during June 2018 fell within the 95 per cent prediction interval for all previous forecasts.  

fig9

Looking forward, the updated forecasts for the September 2018 quarter onwards have been revised downwards with sales expected to increase by 3.4 per cent in the September 2018 quarter. Sales are expected to fall in the December 2018 quarter by 12.9 per cent and fall by a further 5.1 per cent in the March 2019 quarter. Sales are then forecast to increase in the June 2019 quarter by 6.1 per cent, ending at 14,316 m3 (9.3 per cent lower than current sales). 

Landscaping products

Actual sales of landscaping products in the June 2018 quarter (37,864 m3) were weaker than expected, falling below the April 2018 forecasts (40,295 m3) by 6.0 per cent, or 2,431 m3. Actual sales volumes for June 2018 were within the 95 per cent prediction intervals for all previous forecasts.

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Looking forward, the updated forecasts for the September 2018 quarter onwards have been revised downwards. Sales are expected to increase by 26.3 per cent in the September 2018 quarter, and by a further 6.0 per cent in the December 2018 quarter, before falling 15.5 per cent in the March 2019 quarter. Sales are expected to increase slightly (2.2 per cent) in the June 2019 quarter, ending at 43,774 m3 (15.6 per cent higher current sales).